Looks as though the start of this baseball season will start the same way it has over the past few years. Fresh off a disappointing Duke loss in the NCAA tourney, I look to my trusted New York Yankees for a pick-me-up. However, to no avail, we see the most anticipated offense in baseball bring a meager 17 runners across home plate over 6 games; an average of less than 3 runs a game. However, I am a believer in the law of averages. Duke will rebound next year, literally and figuratively, and the Yankees will find themselves closer to the 6 runs a game that the 2007 lineup boasted (prediction count: 1). And I know all of this because of one sustainable fact: The Orioles are in first place through the first week of the 2008 season. A feat that has Vegas odds of 1 to 1. Just as sure, September will have the Orioles finding themselves defending fourth place only to allow it to slip away to a respectable Rays team (prediction count: 2). This plays into another indisputable fact: That the AL East is the only division which truly matters and the Yankees and Red Sox are the only teams within the division that truly matter. With all due respect to the other teams as they will surely give us our licks throughout the season only to see fate wrap its fingers around the game as the Sox and Yankees finish one, two respectively as September draws to a close (prediction count: 3).
The beauty of baseball is that the law of averages applies nowhere else as strongly as it does to the sport of baseball. Albert Pujols hit 14 home runs in April two seasons ago, ending the season with 49. Alex Rodriguez matched the April home run barrage a year later, finishing the season at 56. To be sure, these are no numbers to scoff at but the point is that they didn't end the season flirting with 100 round trippers. In 1998, Juan Gonzales had 101 RBI at the break, only to end the season with 157. Once again, an impressive figure, but not worthy of shattering Hack Wilson's 68 year old record, a record no one will ever break (prediction count: 4).
You may wonder where exactly I am going with this so I will end all of the suspense. The Yankees will have a poor showing in April. But April showers bring May flowers. They will end April hovering around .500 (prediction count: 5). They will leave the month of May, entering the dog days of summer, atop the AL East leader board (prediction count: 6). They never fail. Spoken like a true modern-era Yankees fan (1985-present). I never suffered through the miserable eighties of hapless last place finishes and players whose only evidence of MLB employment is a 1984 Fleer wax-pack baseball card complete with chewing gum residue on the back. Perception is reality and I see the Yankees finishing strong, per usual. Naturally, the question arises of where such lofty expectations came to be. I assure you, I won't be spuming with positivity down 1 run to the Red Sox in the 3rd inning (those are sure losses, just ask Erik). But, the scales always find a way to level out. So my advice to you is not to mind all of the analyst mumbo jumbo or color commentators gushing over how the highest payroll in baseball is struggling mightily on the field. It is merely something that comes with the territory. The Detroit Tigers are the only winless team in baseball to this point, meanwhile they flaunt the second highest payroll in the league. Yet, there are no warnings of Rome burning down quite yet. I posit that the headlines would be different if the Yankees started with an 0-5 mark.
P.S. I promise nothing by making predictions. I commiserate with Mike Greenberg of Mike&Mike in this respect.
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